Section 203

Refinance Risk Analysis

Requirements

You must prepare an exit strategy analyzing the Borrower'sBorrower'sPerson who is the obligor per the Note. ability to refinance the Mortgage LoanMortgage LoanMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. in the year after the Maturity DateMaturity DateDate all amounts due and owing per the Mortgage Loan become fully due and payable per the Loan Documents. (e.g., use the projected NCFNCFOn an annual basis or any specified period, the total Net Operating Income, minus the full amount underwritten for Replacement Reserve expense, regardless of whether deposits will be made (per Part II, Chapter 2: Valuation and Income, Section 202: Income Analysis and the applicable products and… in year 11 for a Mortgage LoanMortgage LoanMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. with a 10-year term), by calculating a:

  • “reversion” cap rate, which is the expected capitalization rate able to be supported per the projected NCFNCFOn an annual basis or any specified period, the total Net Operating Income, minus the full amount underwritten for Replacement Reserve expense, regardless of whether deposits will be made (per Part II, Chapter 2: Valuation and Income, Section 202: Income Analysis and the applicable products and…; and
  • Refinance Interest RateRefinance Interest RateMaximum interest rate that could be supported based on the UPB, required DSCR, and projected Net Cash Flow for the first year following the Maturity Date. .
203.01

Base Assumptions

Requirements

For Loan YearLoan YearPeriod beginning on the date of the Note and ending on the last day of the month that is 12 full months after the date of the Note, and each successive 12-month period thereafter. 1, use the Underwritten NCFUnderwritten NCFNet Cash Flow as adjusted by the Lender per Part II, Chapter 2: Valuation and Income, Section 202: Income Analysis and the applicable products and features in Part III. .  For all subsequent Loan YearsLoan YearsPeriod beginning on the date of the Note and ending on the last day of the month that is 12 full months after the date of the Note, and each successive 12-month period thereafter. , you must derive proforma NCFNCFOn an annual basis or any specified period, the total Net Operating Income, minus the full amount underwritten for Replacement Reserve expense, regardless of whether deposits will be made (per Part II, Chapter 2: Valuation and Income, Section 202: Income Analysis and the applicable products and… as follows:

Factor For... Use...
Income Growth Rate
  • Student HousingStudent HousingA multifamily residential rental property in which 40% or more, but less than 80%, of the units are leased to either undergraduate or graduate students. PropertiesPropertiesMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code). ,
  • Dedicated Student HousingDedicated Student HousingMultifamily rental Property in which 80% or more of the units are leased to undergraduate or graduate students. PropertiesPropertiesMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code). ,
  • Structured Transactions, and
  • Mortgage LoansMortgage LoansMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. secured by multiple PropertiesPropertiesMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code).
2%.
Multifamily Affordable HousingMultifamily Affordable HousingProperty encumbered by a regulatory agreement, land use restriction agreement, extended use agreement, or similar restriction that limits rents that can be charged to tenants, or imposes income limits on tenants. PropertiesPropertiesMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code).

an overall growth rate based on the proportion of restricted units (i.e., affordable at 80% AMI or less) and the proportion of unrestricted units, and using:

 

  • 2% for restricted units; and
  • the rent growth published in DUS GatewayDUS GatewayMultifamily pre-acquisition system including deal registration, Pre-Review and/or waiver tracking, decision records, or any successor systems. for the Property'sProperty'sMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code). submarket for unrestricted units.
For example, for a 100 unit PropertyPropertyMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code). , with 20 restricted units, and a 4% DUS GatewayDUS GatewayMultifamily pre-acquisition system including deal registration, Pre-Review and/or waiver tracking, decision records, or any successor systems. submarket rent growth, the overall growth rate would be 3.6% or (20/100 x 2%) + (80/100 x 4%).
All other Mortgage LoansMortgage LoansMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. the rent growth published in DUS GatewayDUS GatewayMultifamily pre-acquisition system including deal registration, Pre-Review and/or waiver tracking, decision records, or any successor systems. for the Property'sProperty'sMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code). submarket.
Economic Vacancy All Mortgage LoansMortgage LoansMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. the underwritten economic vacancy rate.
Real Estate Taxes All Mortgage LoansMortgage LoansMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement.
  • for California:
    • acquisitions, use 2%; or
    • refinances, no trending is required until the year when the actual tax bill would surpass the underwritten taxes, then trend by 2%; and
  • for all other Mortgage LoansMortgage LoansMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. :  
    • use 3%; or
    • if an abatement expires or taxes are expected to rise during the Mortgage LoanMortgage LoanMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. term, increase taxes to the expected level, then trend by 3%; or
    • if an abatement, exemption, deferral, or PILOTPILOTPayment In Lieu Of Taxes. begins phase out or expires within 5 years after the Maturity DateMaturity DateDate all amounts due and owing per the Mortgage Loan become fully due and payable per the Loan Documents. , use fully assessed real estate taxes.
All Other Expense Growth Rate All Mortgage LoansMortgage LoansMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. 3%.

 

You must estimate the Mortgage LoanMortgage LoanMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. UPBUPBUnpaid Principal Balance at the Maturity DateMaturity DateDate all amounts due and owing per the Mortgage Loan become fully due and payable per the Loan Documents. as follows:

For... Use...
Amortization
  • 30 years, or
  • the amortization for the applicable product or features.
DSCR The minimum TierTierTier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, or Tier 4 per the Multifamily Underwriting Standards (Form 4660). 2 DSCRDSCROn an annual basis or any specified period, the ratio of Net Cash Flow to the total of:  principal, interest, and required Mezzanine Financing or Hard Preferred Equity payments. for the applicable product or features, per Form 4660Form 4660Multifamily Underwriting Standards identifying Pre-Review Mortgage Loans and containing the minimum underwriting requirements (e.g., debt service coverage ratio, loan to value ratio, interest only, underwriting floors, etc.) for all Mortgage Loans. .
LTV The maximum TierTierTier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, or Tier 4 per the Multifamily Underwriting Standards (Form 4660). 2 LTVLTVRatio of the actual aggregate UPB of the Mortgage Loan, plus any Pre-Existing Mortgage Loans, plus any Hard Preferred Equity, plus any Mezzanine Financing, to the value of the Property, expressed as a percentage.  for the applicable product or features, per Form 4660Form 4660Multifamily Underwriting Standards identifying Pre-Review Mortgage Loans and containing the minimum underwriting requirements (e.g., debt service coverage ratio, loan to value ratio, interest only, underwriting floors, etc.) for all Mortgage Loans. .

Guidance

Since these base assumptions are indicative only, you may use more conservative estimates if warranted by circumstances particular to the PropertyPropertyMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code). .

In most cases, the combined effect of principal amortization and NCFNCFOn an annual basis or any specified period, the total Net Operating Income, minus the full amount underwritten for Replacement Reserve expense, regardless of whether deposits will be made (per Part II, Chapter 2: Valuation and Income, Section 202: Income Analysis and the applicable products and… growth should result in a refinancing at the minimum DSCRDSCROn an annual basis or any specified period, the ratio of Net Cash Flow to the total of:  principal, interest, and required Mezzanine Financing or Hard Preferred Equity payments. and maximum LTVLTVRatio of the actual aggregate UPB of the Mortgage Loan, plus any Pre-Existing Mortgage Loans, plus any Hard Preferred Equity, plus any Mezzanine Financing, to the value of the Property, expressed as a percentage.  for TierTierTier 1, Tier 2, Tier 3, or Tier 4 per the Multifamily Underwriting Standards (Form 4660). 2, using a reasonable interest rate.

You should consider the following refinance parameters:

  • A target reversion capitalization rate at least 2.0% greater than the initial capitalization rate used for determining Underwriting ValueUnderwriting ValueValue of the Property determined by the Lender to size the Mortgage Loan per Part II, Chapter 2: Valuation and Income, Section 201: Market and Valuation. .
  • A Refinance Interest RateRefinance Interest RateMaximum interest rate that could be supported based on the UPB, required DSCR, and projected Net Cash Flow for the first year following the Maturity Date. at least 2.25% greater than the current 10-year Amortizing Nationwide Underwriting Floor rate, per Form 4660Form 4660Multifamily Underwriting Standards identifying Pre-Review Mortgage Loans and containing the minimum underwriting requirements (e.g., debt service coverage ratio, loan to value ratio, interest only, underwriting floors, etc.) for all Mortgage Loans. .
203.02

Alternative Assumptions

Guidance

If you determine the base assumptions do not appropriately estimate the Property'sProperty'sMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code). NCFNCFOn an annual basis or any specified period, the total Net Operating Income, minus the full amount underwritten for Replacement Reserve expense, regardless of whether deposits will be made (per Part II, Chapter 2: Valuation and Income, Section 202: Income Analysis and the applicable products and… over the Mortgage LoanMortgage LoanMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. term, you may present an alternative risk analysis using assumptions that deviate from the base assumptions.

You should:

  • specifically identify and support any deviations with reliable evidence and historical and projected market trends; and 
  • state your conclusions and discuss any mitigating factors, such as the
    • strength of the SponsorSponsorPrincipal equity owner and/or primary decision maker of the Borrower (often the Key Principal or the Person Controlling the Key Principal). or the submarket,
    • Property'sProperty'sMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code).  characteristics, or
    • Property'sProperty'sMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code).  operating history and performance.

Income and Expense Growth Rates:  Income and expense trending should incorporate projected market rates based upon general economic, market, and submarket conditions from reliable sources.  For example:

  • Rents on recently signed leases should only be used for estimating income growth in Loan YearsLoan YearsPeriod beginning on the date of the Note and ending on the last day of the month that is 12 full months after the date of the Note, and each successive 12-month period thereafter. 1 and 2.
  • Rent projections greater than the Base Assumption Income Growth Rate should not be used beyond Loan YearLoan YearPeriod beginning on the date of the Note and ending on the last day of the month that is 12 full months after the date of the Note, and each successive 12-month period thereafter. 4.
  • When improvements in market economic occupancy or sustained market rental rate increases are widely anticipated, growth trends above the Base Assumption Income Growth Rate may be supported.
  • Projections of income growth resulting from PropertyPropertyMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code). renovations or improved operations should be limited to the first 3 Loan YearsLoan YearsPeriod beginning on the date of the Note and ending on the last day of the month that is 12 full months after the date of the Note, and each successive 12-month period thereafter. .
  • When a PropertyPropertyMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code). is subject to a scheduled reassessment or a tax abatement phase-in period, tax expense should be adjusted appropriately.
  • If a tax abatement, exemption, deferral, or PILOTPILOTPayment In Lieu Of Taxes. begins phase out or expires more than 5 years after the Maturity DateMaturity DateDate all amounts due and owing per the Mortgage Loan become fully due and payable per the Loan Documents. , consider if the increased expense within 10 years after the Maturity DateMaturity DateDate all amounts due and owing per the Mortgage Loan become fully due and payable per the Loan Documents. may affect the Borrower'sBorrower'sPerson who is the obligor per the Note.  ability to refinance, and warrants
    • a lower Mortgage LoanMortgage LoanMortgage debt obligation evidenced, or when made will be evidenced, by the Loan Documents, or  a mortgage debt obligation with a Fannie Mae credit enhancement. amount,
    • faster amortization, or
    • a reduced interest only period.
  • When you expect to incur costs for tenant improvement allowances and leasing commissions, or to realize rent increases from the rollover of tenants, commercial income should be adjusted appropriately.

Economic Vacancy:  PropertiesPropertiesMultifamily residential real estate securing the Mortgage Loan, including the fee simple or Leasehold interest, Improvements, and personal property (per the Uniform Commercial Code). in submarkets with depressed economic conditions due to temporary demand or supply issues may be modeled to reflect the economic vacancy projected by a reliable source.  If you expect a decrease in vacancy to achieve stabilized levels, you should consider

  • the anticipated timing, and
  • effect of decreased economic vacancy on projected income growth over the same time period.